For Pennsylvania, which is one of the largest energy producers in the nation, a June 2021 analysis by David T. Stevenson, director of the Center for Energy and Environment at the Delaware-based Caesar Rodney Institute, found a carbon tax would cost the commonwealth as much as $2 billion a year in electricity sales, 22,000 jobs and $7.7 billion in combined economic productivity. These impacts were based on auction prices far lower than the current $20.05.

Senate Republicans last year, when Shapiro proposed PACER, argued the impacts of a Pennsylvania-specific cap-and-trade program would be no different than RGGI’s impacts.

“The key challenge is a cap-and-tax initiative is punitive and we shouldn’t be having this conversation with a punitive mindset,” said Senate Majority Leader Joe Pittman, R-Indiana.

Sen. Gene Yaw, R-Williamsport, the majority chair of the Senate Environmental Resources and Energy Committee, has been clear about his opposition to any type of cap-and-trade program.

“Gov. Shapiro appears to be adopting the same misguided policies of his predecessor by imposing a RGGI-like, job-killing carbon tax on electric generation and other mandates,” said Yaw. “The governor left out the real crisis we are facing in the next 10 years: the generation of baseload electricity.”

Baseload power plants run continuously to meet demand, day or night, regardless of the weather.

His assertions backed up by reports by PJM in recent years, Yaw said the state and the larger PJM are falling behind in replacing baseload electricity generation capacity that has been lost due to policy changes that have forced the closure of coal power plants, in addition to other aging energy-producing facilities going offline.

“Over the next few years, we are expected to lose 40,000 megawatts (MWs) of reliable, baseload power from the PJM grid, of which about 10,000 MWs comes from Pennsylvania. The bulk of the loss is due to policy reforms, such as those recommended by the governor,” Yaw said, adding that these policies send “a terrible message to potential investors considering Pennsylvania for investments in reliable, baseload generation.”

Yaw explained that a natural gas electric generation facility takes three to five years to build, while a nuclear facility takes 15 to 20 years. To meet the projected electricity needs three years from now, Yaw said, “We should have 10 combined cycle generation facilities under construction right now. We don’t, and we are running out of time.”

PACER, as well as Shapiro’s other proposal to require utility companies to purchase more electricity generated by renewable sources – most of which are still unreliable as on-demand energy sources because their generation fluctuates depending on time of day and weather conditions – are doing nothing to address looming energy grid reliability concerns, argued Yaw.